Continents dry as declining precipitation efficiency redirects moisture pathways toward the ocean

Abstract Terrestrial water availability is declining across most regions, yet the underlying atmospheric processes remain unresolved. Here we show that this decline is dominated by a fall in the efficiency with which moisture precipitates over land, reorganizing land–ocean atmospheric moisture exchange. Combining a moisture tracking framework with a multi-dataset ensemble of precipitation and evaporation products for 1981–2023, we decompose this exchange into oceanic moisture import and continental moisture export. While oceanic evaporation increases and moisture transport toward land strengthens, a smaller fraction of this moisture precipitates over continents. Meanwhile, more continental moisture is exported to the oceans, further reducing continental precipitation recycling. Declining continental precipitation efficiency dominates these shifts, consistent with reduced relative humidity and increased atmospheric stability over land, linked to the land–ocean warming contrast and soil moisture limitation. These tendencies point to continued declines in continental water availability under warming, even as the global water cycle intensifies.