Decarbonisation dynamics through electrification: Sectoral pathways for Colombia

Electrification facilitates decarbonisation; however, its effectiveness depends on the way public policies shape demand-side technological substitution across end-use sectors. In Colombia, despite efforts to integrate renewable energy sources into the electricity mix, the energy transition remains constrained by insufficient policy coordination across transport, residential, tertiary, and industrial sectors, placing the country at risk of failing to meet its CO2 emissions reduction targets. While existing studies propose multiple transition pathways – largely focused on developed economies – demand-side dynamics and behavioural responses to policy-driven technological substitution remain marginal in analyses of developing countries. To examine these dynamics, a sectoral energy transition model for Colombia is developed using a system dynamics approach that captures feedback between public policy, consumer behaviour, and long-term energy demand. Results indicate that a transformation of the Colombian energy matrix by 2050 is achievable from the demand side, provided electrification policies prioritise transport, residential, and tertiary sectors. Residential electrification rises from 47% in 2024 to over 92% by 2050, while clean technologies exceed 80% of the transport fleet. Economy-wide electrification increases electricity demand by a factor of 3.5, requiring a 4.3-fold expansion of fully renewable electricity generation capacity.