This is the edge: Gentrification, racial change, and Black population decline in West Coast metropolitan areas

Much attention has been given to the decline of Black populations across major West Coast metropolitan areas. Gentrification is often identified as a key driver of this “exodus,” yet its role remains unclear, particularly in relation to racial demographic change. This study examines how socioeconomic gentrification and shifts in neighborhood racial composition are separately associated with changes in Black population share when modeled simultaneously. Using Census and ACS data, we analyze the 10 largest West Coast metropolitan areas with multilevel panel Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Results show that gentrification is not distinctly associated with Black population decline. Instead, increases in White population share are a more consistent predictor of decline. Moreover, once racial change is accounted for, gentrification is associated with increases in Black population share. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between economic and racial processes in understanding urban demographic change.