Circular Economy-Based Scenario Planning for Resilient Humanitarian Supply Chains: A Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approach

This paper aims to develop a scenario-planning framework that integrates circular economy (CE) practices into humanitarian supply chains (HSCs) to enhance systemic resilience. Specifically, the research seeks to provide a strategic blueprint for humanitarian organizations to transition from traditional linear models to sustainable, resilient ecosystems that maintain high service levels amid extreme uncertainty. The study employs a mixed-methods design to develop and validate a framework for circular, resilient HSCs. The qualitative phase involves semi-structured interviews with experts to identify and contextualize key constructs related to CE and resilience in HSCs. In the second phase, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) models the causal relationships among the identified constructs, capturing the complexity and feedback dynamics inherent in HSCs. Finally, the study conducts a scenario analysis to assess the impact of alternative strategic configurations on overall system performance. The findings demonstrate that CE in resilient HSCs emerges from dynamic interactions among CE practices, adaptive capabilities, and collaborative system structures. Scenario planning further reveals that integrated strategies combining agility, local resource utilization, innovation, and policy support yield the highest levels of system adaptability and sustainability. This study contributes to the HSC resilience literature by integrating CE with scenario planning theory into a unified analytical framework. In practice, the study provides actionable insights for humanitarian organizations and practitioners by identifying key leverage points and strategic pathways for designing adaptive, regenerative, and sustainable humanitarian relief systems.