Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11)

We analyse whether women and men differ in Do-Not-Finish (DNF) risk in self-routed ultracycling using Transcontinental Race (TCR) No10–No11 replay tracking. Men rode faster when moving (~10%) but DNF survival curves showed minimal separation by sex. Stopping strategies did not differ. In post-48 h landmark Cox models, early stopped time (within 48h) strongly predicted later DNF while higher moving speed was protective; sex had no effect. Route-aware distance analysis supported these conclusions. Early pacing and stop management (regardless the sex) dominate DNF risk.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal Of Science & Cycling
Published
2026-11-02
Primary Topic
Sports Performance and Training
Type
article
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article

Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11)

Juan Francisco Garamendi Bragado
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Journal Of Science & Cycling
Sports Performance and Training
article

Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11)

Juan Francisco Garamendi Bragado
article en

Abstract

We analyse whether women and men differ in Do-Not-Finish (DNF) risk in self-routed ultracycling using Transcontinental Race (TCR) No10–No11 replay tracking. Men rode faster when moving (~10%) but DNF survival curves showed minimal separation by sex. Stopping strategies did not differ. In post-48 h landmark Cox models, early stopped time (within 48h) strongly predicted later DNF while higher moving speed was protective; sex had no effect. Route-aware distance analysis supported these conclusions. Early pacing and stop management (regardless the sex) dominate DNF risk.

Journal Of Science & Cycling
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Sports Performance and Training
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Do Women and Men Fail Differently? DNF Risk Prediction in Self-Routed Ultracycling (TCRNo10–No11) — Juan Francisco Garamendi Bragado · Journal Of Science & Cycling (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS