Critical-Mineral Upgrading Across Project Stages: A Comparative Framework for Industrial Policy

Abstract Mineral endowments, strategic designation and prospective processing capacity are often treated as evidence of industrial upgrading. They are not equivalent to realised production or domestic value capture. This article develops the Resource Upgrading Decision Matrix (RUDM) from a country diagnostic into a comparative, stage-gated typology of implementation constraints. A structured comparison of Serbia’s Jadar lithium-borates project, Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni lithium industry and Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine combines dated legal and corporate records, independent research and the World Bank’s 2016–2025 governance series. The cases distinguish proposed capacity from observed output and copper content in concentrate from domestic refining. Jadar shows the gap between strategic recognition and fully permitted production; Uyuni foregrounds technology validation, contracting and the scale-up of carbonate output; and Las Bambas shows that substantial concentrate production does not establish domestic refined-metal upgrading. The RUDM application identifies a distinct binding gate in each case: authorisation–legitimacy–finance, technical-commercial scale-up, and benefit-and-logistics. The contribution is a set of falsifiable policy-sequencing propositions, not an out-of-sample forecasting model. Before committing to downstream targets, policymakers should establish the condition that blocks the next project transition; once output is established, logistics, local benefits and processing economics require separate appraisal. JEL classification: L72; O25; Q33; Q56.