Optimizing Business-to-Business Commercial Vehicle Leasing Contracts in Saudi Arabia: An Economic Model for Pricing, Risk and Long-Term Profitability

Commercial vehicle leasing is an arrangement whereby capital expenditure, asset management and certain operating risks are passed from the lessor to the business customer. In the Saudi context this is occurring at the same time as the growth of logistics activity, the diversification of transport demand and the increasing use of data in fleet management. A competitive rental quote is not necessarily a viable contract as the quoted payment will need to cover capital, maintenance, financing, expected credit losses and residual value exposure as well as allow for a degree of contractual flexibility. This paper reviews 30 publications (all with a DOI) from 2020 to 2025 and develops an integrated, risk-adjusted framework for business to business leasing decisions. The review is structured thematically around vehicle depreciation, customer credit, utilisation volatility, lifecycle cost, contract design and fleet renewal. The model proposed combines DCF, probability weighted loss, scenario analysis and contractual risk allocation. The illustrative calculations are of the decision process rather than actual estimates for the Saudi market. The findings suggest that pricing discipline is less about any one risk premium and more about the integration of the operational information, the enforceability of the service obligations, the return conditions and the renewal options. The paper's contribution is a transparent decision architecture through which both lessors and lessees can assess the profitability, affordability and service resilience of a leasing arrangement without having to assume that the future resale value or future utilisation will be guaranteed.