Long-Term Trends in Road Traffic Accidents and Mortality in Tunisia: Persistent Territorial Disparities (2002–2025)

This study analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of road accidents and road deaths in Tunisia between 2002 and 2025. It examines the differences between the 24 governorates and compares trends in accidents and deaths. The analysis is based on data from the National Road Safety Observatory (ONSR) and the National Institute of Statistics (INS). It covers 576 observations over 24 years. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope are used to measure trends. The coefficient of variation is used to study annual fluctuations in mortality. The frequency of exceedances of the national rate is used to assess the persistence of territorial disparities. Between 2002 and 2025, the number of accidents fell from 12,127 to 5,424, a decrease of 55.3%. The number of fatalities decreased from 1,585 to 1,253 (−20.9%). By contrast, the number of fatalities per 100 recorded accidents rose from 13.07 to 23.10. There is a downward trend in the accident rates in all 24 governorates. This decrease is statistically significant in 19 governorates, compared to 16 for mortality rates, at the 5% threshold in the individual Mann–Kendall tests. Territorial disparities remain marked. In Gabès, the mortality rate exceeded the national rate for 23 of the 24 years studied, compared to 21 years in Kairouan, Zaghouan and Médenine. These results show that the decline in accidents is not accompanied by a comparable reduction in fatalities. They also highlight the value of considering several indicators to better assess road risk and guide prevention measures.