Global economic consequences of the fifth global trade war under Trump 2.0 evidence from a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model

The objective of this article is to analyze the impact of the strategic trade war initiated by the United States on April 2, 2025, dubbed “Liberation Day,” and to assess its respective effects on the economies involved. This protectionist measure, aimed at rebalancing the U.S. trade balance, was quickly suspended for all countries except China for a period of 90 days, turning tariffs into a bilateral negotiation lever. To study these dynamics, we use a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model, based on the GTAP 11 database and the CEPII 2022 scenario. The simulations reveal that economic effects vary according to strategic configurations: a limited U.S.–China confrontation, with neutrality of other economies (scenario 1), results in losses for both countries, partially offset by China through the redirection of its trade flows toward new partners; the economic isolation of China by the United States (scenario 3) generates net gains for the U.S. and a sharp contraction in China; and if China forms a trade coalition against the United States (scenario 2), it strengthens while the U.S. economy experiences a significant decline in activity and exports. These results highlight that the country capable of economically isolating its rival will be able to mitigate the short-term impact of the conflict and secure long-term strategic gains, while also suggesting the emergence of a new form of cold war, in which geoeconomic preeminence depends on the density of strategic alliances and the ability to mobilize trade partners.