Integrating landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value for ecological zoning in railway corridors: the Hefei–Hangzhou high-speed railway case

The rapid development of high-speed railways (HSR) has reshaped land use and impacted corridor ecosystems, often reducing ecosystem service value (ESV) and increasing landscape ecological risk (LER). Ecological zoning is thus essential for diagnosing and planning ecosystems along HSR lines. Using the Hefei–Hangzhou HSR corridor as a case study, this research examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV and LER from 2010 to 2020 by applying the value equivalence factor method and the landscape ecological risk index. Based on ESV-LER integration, differentiated ecological zones were established, and future scenarios (2025–2035) were simulated using the PLUS model. Key findings include: (1) Built-up areas expanded notably (+ 157.84 km 2 ), while farmland experienced the largest decline (− 130.24 km 2 ) during 2010–2020. (2) LER structure shifted from high- and medium–high-risk dominance toward medium-risk categories, with overall risk declining, whereas total ESV showed an initial rise followed by a net reduction of 286.59 million CNY (− 2.46%). (3) Ecological conservation and control zones formed the mainstay of zoning; the ecological protection zone decreased most significantly (− 10.98%), while the ecological improvement zone grew the fastest (+ 16.50%). (4) The ecological spatial distribution in the study area remains largely consistent with 2020 across 2025, 2030, and 2035, still dominated by ecological control zones—which show a slight decrease (− 9.54%)—and stable ecological conservation zones. By integrating LER and ESV, this study proposes a novel zoning framework to support ecological management in HSR corridors.