A Simulation-Based Framework for Assessing Crisis-Response Capacity of Public Authorities and Emergency Response Organizations: A Heat-Drought Case Study

Abstract Public authorities and emergency response organizations must maintain essential services during prolonged, multi-hazard crises, yet operationally grounded methods for analyzing capacity bottlenecks remain scarce. This paper presents a modular simulation framework that couples (i) a network-based model of crisis effects and cascading infrastructure disruptions using the cascade simulation framework CaESAR with (ii) a discrete-event process model of organizational tasks, resources, queues, and inter-organizational dependencies. Preparedness measures are represented through explicitly parameterized modifiers of task frequency, duration, and resource demand. We demonstrate the framework using a prototypical heat-drought scenario combining wildfire, heat-related medical demand, drinking-water disruption, and heavy rainfall. The case study includes a fire brigade, an ambulance service, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief, and the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance. Model parameters were informed by practitioner input and organizational documentation. The simulation identifies time-dependent resource bottlenecks and illustrates how alternative preparedness assumptions affect operational capacity. Given the synthetic nature of the case study and the model’s only partial calibration, the results should be interpreted as a proof of concept rather than as an empirical estimate of a specific municipality’s resilience. The framework provides a basis for systematic scenario comparison, sensitivity analysis, the future quantification of the coping capacity of public authorities, and the future derivation of validated resilience indicators for public-sector crisis management.