Trends in alcohol consumption and socio-demographic patterns in Belgium, 2010-2040: a modelling study of progress towards harm reduction

Abstract Introduction: Alcohol remains a major preventable risk factor for disease and mortality in Belgium. Monitoring future consumption trends is essential for evaluating progress towards the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.5 target and informing alcohol control policies. This study projected alcohol consumption trends in Belgium up to 2040. Methods: Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) data (1997-2023) were combined with World Health Organization adult per capita consumption data using a triangulation approach. Bayesian time-series models were used to estimate trends in current drinking prevalence and mean alcohol consumption among drinkers by sex, age, region, and educational level. Projections were generated up to 2040 and compared with the SDG 3.5 target of a 20% relative reduction in alcohol consumption in 2030 from 2010 levels. Results: Alcohol consumption is projected to decline across the Belgian population and all analysed population subgroups. Current drinking prevalence is estimated to decrease from 80.4% in 2010 to 75.1% by 2030 and 72.3% by 2040. Mean alcohol consumption is projected to decrease from 23.8 g/day in 2010 to 14.2 g/day by 2030 and 10.5 g/day by 2040. Men are projected to remain higher consumers than women, although the gap is expected to narrow over time. Similar declining trends were observed across regions, age groups, and educational levels, with projected 2030 mean consumption below the corresponding SDG target in all analysedsubgroups. Conclusion: Although alcohol consumption is projected to decline, it is expected to remain an important public health concern. These findings provide the first national projections of alcohol consumption by sex, age, region, and educational level in Belgium and can offer a valuable evidence base for monitoring trends, informing alcohol policy, and evaluating future alcohol control measures.