White–Black Income Inequality, Socioeconomic Upgrading, and Homicide: Evidence From Washington, DC

ABSTRACT Homicide is unevenly distributed across urban neighborhoods, with higher rates in structurally disadvantaged neighborhoods. What happens, then, when neighborhoods change? This study examines how White–Black income inequality and neighborhood socioeconomic upgrading relate to homicide across different temporal horizons of neighborhood change in Washington, DC. Using spatial panel regression models with fixed effects, we analyze homicide patterns across 206 census tracts between 2009 and 2019, distinguishing short‐term (2009–2012), mid‐term (2009–2014), and long‐term (2009–2019) periods of neighborhood change. Results show that, in the short term, the association between White–Black income inequality and homicide varies with neighborhood educational attainment, with the negative association observed at lower levels of educational attainment weakening as educational attainment increases. Neither White–Black income inequality nor socioeconomic upgrading is significantly associated with homicide in the mid‐term models. Over the longer term, increases in the share of college‐educated residents—an indicator of socioeconomic upgrading and one dimension of gentrification—are associated with lower homicide counts. These findings indicate that the relationships among racialized economic inequality, socioeconomic upgrading, and violence vary across temporal horizons of neighborhood transformation. More broadly, the results highlight the importance of considering both timing and neighborhood context when examining how urban change is associated with violent crime.