Mismatch Evolution and Driving Mechanisms Between Livelihood Well-Being and Economic Development Efficiency in Hebei Province, China: A GTWR Approach

In the context of sustainable development and Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei regional integration, synergistic advancement of livelihood welfare and economic development efficiency is essential for addressing regional imbalances. In this study, the structural mismatch between these dimensions in resource-dependent provinces are examined with utilizing panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province (2019–2024). A dual-dimensional evaluation system is constructed with the entropy weight method, mismatch index quantification, spatial visualization, and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) to analyze spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms. Results show: (1) Both subsystems improved steadily while a “core-periphery” gradient pattern is exhibited. After 2021, several cities experienced a decline in their indices. (2) The mismatch exhibited an overall mitigating trend while retaining significant spatial heterogeneity. This was characterized by persistent high-level fluctuation and overall convergence, together with localized polarization in its spatial distribution. (3) Road network density was found to exacerbate the mismatch, while the remaining factors largely alleviated it, with all drivers showing pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. This study advances sustainable regional development assessment by quantifying structural mismatch dynamics and providing evidence-based, place-based policy guidance for fostering inclusive and territorially balanced growth in resource-dependent regions.