Resilience under economic coercion: How Iran, Russia and Venezuela kept their oil sectors afloat

Sanctions are often lauded as the “oil weapon” of liberal states, yet their real-world effects hinge on the adaptive strategies of targeted regimes. Examining Iran, Russia and Venezuela—three major oil exporters sanctioned by Western powers between 2012 and 2021—this study asks how oil-related sanctions shape economic outcomes and political alignments, and under what conditions they advance broader policy goals. Using a multiple-case methodology, we find that sanctions inflict strong short-term harm but are rapidly offset by parallel trade and financial circuits, with democratic gains emerging only alongside conditional negotiations. Sanctions alone are insufficient; they require broader multilateral policy support.