Energetically extreme fires drive disastrous societal impacts

Abstract Societally disastrous fires are often physically extreme. Using a global fire events dataset spanning 2002–2025, we demonstrate that 66% of disaster-linked fires rank in the top 0.5% globally for size, peak daily speed, or peak daily energy. Fire energy emerges as the dominant driver of these disasters, with the median energy of disaster-linked fires ranking in the 99.8th percentile of fires globally. In temperate conifer forests, primarily those in Western North America, the burned area from energetically extreme fires more than doubled during this period. The Global South accounted for 95% of total population exposure and 76% of powerline exposure to energetically extreme fires. These findings underscore the need for improved extreme fire prediction and mitigation efforts to protect lives, homes, and livelihoods.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2026-11-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04217-0
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Energetically extreme fires drive disastrous societal impacts

John T. Abatzoglou, Calum X. Cunningham, Mojtaba Sadegh, Cong Yin et al.
2 links
Communications Earth & Environment
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

Energetically extreme fires drive disastrous societal impacts

John T. Abatzoglou, Calum X. Cunningham, Mojtaba Sadegh, Cong Yin, Matthew W. Jones
article en

Abstract

Abstract Societally disastrous fires are often physically extreme. Using a global fire events dataset spanning 2002–2025, we demonstrate that 66% of disaster-linked fires rank in the top 0.5% globally for size, peak daily speed, or peak daily energy. Fire energy emerges as the dominant driver of these disasters, with the median energy of disaster-linked fires ranking in the 99.8th percentile of fires globally. In temperate conifer forests, primarily those in Western North America, the burned area from energetically extreme fires more than doubled during this period. The Global South accounted for 95% of total population exposure and 76% of powerline exposure to energetically extreme fires. These findings underscore the need for improved extreme fire prediction and mitigation efforts to protect lives, homes, and livelihoods.

Communications Earth & Environment
University of East Anglia (GB), Boise State University (US), University of Tasmania (AU), University of California, Merced (US), Tyndall Centre (GB)
Climate action, Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 20%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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Energetically extreme fires drive disastrous societal impacts — John T. Abatzoglou, Calum X. Cunningham, et al. · Communications Earth & Environment (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS