Navigating multipolarity: India–China relations and the reconfiguration of global and regional order in South Asia

This paper examines how India and China are reconfiguring global and regional order through three interconnected objectives: the changing nature of global order and its influence on India and China as rising powers, the pragmatic cooperation between the two nations under balance-of-power politics, and their competing roles in reshaping the regional order in South Asia. The analysis adopts a mixed-methods design combining qualitative process-tracing of reports, summit declarations, and policy texts with quantitative analysis of UN Comtrade bilateral trade flow data (2013–2024) from China and India to five South Asian economies. Results indicate that China outpaced India regionally, expanding its share of bilateral trade flows over the study period, with projections indicating a lead of USD 6 to 15 billion by 2030. Aggregate figures conceal substantial heterogeneity: Bangladesh remains locked into Chinese dominance, Nepal has deepened its India orientation, and the Maldives and Sri Lanka qualify as genuinely contested markets. The Sri Lankan case complicates prevailing narratives of Chinese economic dominance, with India’s trade flows reaching USD 6.37 billion against China’s USD 3.75 billion during the 2021–2022 sovereign crisis. The paper argues that navigated multipolarity, characterized by soft-balanced coexistence between rivals and politically contingent regional advantages, has become the defining condition of contemporary international relations in South Asia.