Province-Level Spatial Analysis of Climate Migration Risk in Türkiye Using an Indicator-Based Composite Index Approach

Abstract This study maps relative climate migration risk across Türkiye’s 81 provinces. Climate migration risk is conceptualized as the joint configuration of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), rather than as a direct function of any single hazard. Twenty-five indicators from official statistics and international climate and land data were normalized to 0–1 within a theoretical hierarchy and combined into a fixed-weight linear Climate Migration Risk Index (CMRI). Robustness was assessed with equal and CRITIC weights, winsorization, geometric aggregation, leave-one-out analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation; the result was also compared diagnostically with the Turkish Statistical Institute’s 2008–2025 internal migration series. Risk concentrates in southern and southeastern provinces, but similar scores arise from different combinations of hazards, agricultural exposure, social sensitivity, and capacity deficits. Alternative models preserve the main spatial pattern, whereas diagnostic migration comparisons show that structural risk and observed mobility should not be treated as equivalent constructs. The CMRI provides a transparent, reproducible, component-traceable link between national screening and place-based adaptation planning.