MATHEMATICAL MODELING AS A BASIS FOR THE FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY OF BANTEN PALM SUGAR READY TO DRINK COFFEE PRODUCT INNOVATION

ABSTRACT The increasing demand for locally based ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee beverages has created opportunities for the development of palm sugar coffee businesses in Banten Province, Indonesia. However, production planning and investment decision-making in this sector are generally not supported by integrated quantitative analyses, highlighting the need for a model that can optimize production while evaluating business feasibility. This study aims to develop a mathematical model and assess the financial feasibility of an innovative RTD palm sugar coffee business in Banten. This research employs a quantitative approach, implemented through product formulation, organoleptic testing, and production cost analysis, regression-based mathematical modeling, and financial feasibility analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Benefit-Cost Ratio (Net B/C Ratio), and Payback Period (PP). The results showed that the best formulation consisted of a robusta–arabica coffee blend with palm sugar, achieving the highest level of consumer acceptance. The cost model obtained was C(x) = 7,197x + 3,601,000, while the profit function was P(x) = 12,803x − 3,601,000, with a break-even point of 282 units per month. Conclusion in this study financial analysis indicated that the business is highly feasible, with an NPV of IDR 226,292,964, an IRR of 167.6%, a Net B/C Ratio of 2.71, and a Payback Period of less than one year. The contribution of this study lies in the development of an integrated model that links production mathematical modeling with investment analysis for local food-based beverage enterprises. Therefore, the RTD palm sugar coffee business in Banten Province demonstrates strong potential and is highly viable for further development. Keywords: financial analysis; palm sugar coffee; ready to drink (RTD). ABSTRAK Meningkatnya permintaan minuman kopi siap minum (ready to drink/RTD) berbasis produk lokal membuka peluang pengembangan usaha kopi gula aren di Provinsi Banten. Namun, perencanaan produksi dan pengambilan keputusan investasi pada usaha ini umumnya belum didukung oleh analisis kuantitatif yang terintegrasi, sehingga diperlukan model yang dapat mengoptimalkan produksi sekaligus menilai kelayakan usaha. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model matematis dan menganalisis kelayakan finansial usaha inovasi produk RTD kopi gula aren Banten. Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif melalui formulasi produk, uji organoleptik, analisis biaya produksi, pemodelan matematis berbasis regresi, serta analisis kelayakan finansial menggunakan indikator Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net B/C Ratio, dan Payback Period (PP). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa formulasi terbaik diperoleh pada kombinasi kopi robusta–arabika dan gula aren dengan tingkat penerimaan panelis tertinggi. Model biaya yang terbentuk adalah C(x) = 7.197x + 3.601.000, sedangkan fungsi keuntungan adalah P(x) = 12.803x − 3.601.000 dengan titik impas pada 282 unit per bulan. Kesimpulan penelitian adalah analisis finansial menghasilkan NPV sebesar Rp226.292.964, IRR sebesar 167,6%, Net B/C Ratio sebesar 2,71, dan Payback Period kurang dari satu tahun, sehingga usaha dinyatakan sangat layak. Kontribusi penelitian ini adalah menghasilkan model integratif yang menghubungkan pemodelan matematis produksi dengan analisis investasi pada usaha minuman berbasis pangan lokal. Dengan demikian, usaha RTD kopi gula aren di Provinsi Banten memiliki prospek yang sangat baik untuk dikembangkan. Kata kunci: kelayakan usaha, kopi gula aren, ready to drink (RTD),