Strengthening global health security through prioritizing interdependent logistics and supply network indicators

Abstract This study analyzes the interdependencies among logistics and supply network indicators from the Global Health Security (GHS) index to understand their combined impact on GHS preparedness. The study contributes to the literature by identifying both the most predictive indicators of GHS performance and the indicators with the greatest potential to improve preparedness outcomes through a probabilistic network modeling approach. Using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model, twelve logistics and supply network indicators relevant to GHS are examined to determine their influence, ranking, and interactions. Sensitivity and mutual value of information analyses are applied to assess the relative importance and predictive strength of each indicator. The findings reveal strong interconnections, particularly involving laboratory cooperation and coordination, and transportation security. Sensitivity results indicate that improving laboratory cooperation and coordination substantially enhances health security, resulting in the largest increase in the percentage of countries classified within the high-performance tier of the GHS Index (61 percentage points) when this indicator transitions from low to high performance. Furthermore, laboratory capacity and routine health care and laboratory system supply are identified as the most informative predictors of the GHS index. These findings provide critical insights for guiding investments, refining preparedness strategies, and strengthening the overall resilience of global health systems.