Human Capital, Residential Investment, and Productivity Dynamics: Evidence from Harmonized Vietnamese Provinces

Abstract This study examines how changes in human capital and household residential capital formation are associated with provincial labor-productivity dynamics in Vietnam. A balanced panel of 28 harmonized provincial units over 2010–2025 is reconstructed to the 2025 administrative boundaries. Human capital is measured by the trained-worker share, while residential investment is proxied by newly self-built floor area per capita. Panel local projections with province and year fixed effects trace cumulative productivity responses over five years. Inference combines province-clustered standard errors, Webb-weighted wild-cluster bootstrap p-values, Driscoll–Kraay covariance estimates, and a common-factor augmentation. Residential investment is followed by a persistently positive productivity path, although statistical precision varies across estimators. Changes in the trained-worker share show little short-run association but a delayed negative medium-run pattern whose significance is less stable. The results are interpreted as conditional dynamic associations, highlighting local absorptive capacity, skill matching, and spatial adjustment rather than causal treatment effects in provinces. JEL classification: J24; R11; R21; C23; O47