Ethnic Cleavages, Elite Fragmentation, and State Fragility in Sudan: Rethinking Arab–Non-Arab Grievances and Civil War Dynamics

Sudan’s recurrent conflict is explained through ethnic grievance, marginalisation and displacement, yet these conditions do not explain why conflict becomes salient over time or why mobilisation varies across episodes. This study examines how structural inequality interacts with elite fragmentation to produce political violence. It pursues three objectives: to assess the explanatory limits of the Fragile States Index (FSI); to trace changing Arab–non-Arab identity salience across Darfur, the 2018–2019 revolution, the 2021 coup and the SAF–RSF war; and to specify mechanisms linking grievance, elite competition and violence. The study adopts an interpretivist paradigm and qualitative documentary design, combining structured narrative review with process tracing. Findings indicate that horizontal inequalities provide durable grievances, while fragmented elites, coercive autonomy and resource networks determine their political activation. Ethnic identity is neither primordial nor merely manufactured. Displacement is mainly an outcome that can deepen fragility. The study concludes that Sudan’s fragility is a cumulative political process requiring institutional, security and distributive reforms. It recommends civilian security oversight, transparent resource governance, and inclusive centre–periphery institutions.