Ecological Drivers of Swiftlet House Sustainability in Bangka Belitung: Habitat-Prey and Microclimate Connections in Coastal and Urban Context

Swiftlet nest production depends on free-flying birds that forage outside buildings. This study maps the structural positions of ecological and institutional factors within the swiftlet house system in the Bangka Belitung Islands, and formulates a testable ecological pathway. The study design uses a case study approach combining focus group discussions with 19 participants, observational reconnaissance in coastal and urban contexts, single-time temperature and humidity readings, document review, and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplications Applied to Classification (MICMAC) analysis of 14 variables. Habitat recorded the strongest outgoing influence (23); weather had an outgoing influence of 15 and a dependence of 0; governance occupied a linkage position; while business actor income and local government revenue had dependencies of 28 and 27 respectively. The matrix contained 118 actual or potential relationships with a fill rate of 60.20%. These results indicate a structural arrangement that places habitat and weather upstream, governance as a mediator of ecological pressure, and population and economic outcomes downstream. The habitat–prey–insect–microclimate–population pathway represents a theoretical synthesis, not a relationship measured directly in the matrix. Readings of 25 °C/79% in the coastal context and 32 °C/73% in the urban context reflect conditions at the time of observation. This study produces propositions to be tested through longitudinal monitoring of land cover, aerial insects, weather, building microclimate, occupancy, reproduction, nest production, and harvest intensity.