The Neurocognitive Intent-to-Outcome Feedback Theory (NIOF): A Conditional Integrative Model of Goal-Directed Cognition, Learning, Action, and Outcome

AbstractHuman goal pursuit is studied across partially separate literatures on mental imagery, selective attention, self-efficacy, implementation intentions, learning and neuroplasticity, habit formation, self-regulation, and self-fulfilling expectations.The Neurocognitive Intent-to-Outcome Feedback Theory (NIOF) proposes a conditional integrative framework for describing how a specified goal and its mental representation may influence attention, appraisal, practice, learning, action, and context-dependent outcomes, while outcomes feed back into subsequent goals and strategies.The framework is organized into eight functional layers and eight research domains. Its central primary case is Goal-Directed Performance Realization through Self-Instruction and Mental Simulation (GPR-SIMS), illustrated by a learner preparing for a defined assessment.A dynamic probabilistic state-space model is specified with operational definitions for observed and latent variables, measurement error, contextual constraints, and parameter estimation. The earlier Cognitive Indistinguishability Principle is refined into Representational Overlap and Source Monitoring: imagery and perception can share representational processes without being universally indistinguishable.Ten preregisterable hypotheses, boundary cases, competing models, falsification criteria, a proposed first experimental design, and a twelve-phase research roadmap are provided.The contribution claimed here is architectural and methodological: NIOF is a candidate model whose novelty and added predictive value must be established through systematic literature review, construct validation, model comparison, and independent replication. No empirical results are claimed.Keywords: mental imagery; goal pursuit; self-efficacy; selective attention; implementation intentions; neuroplasticity; self-regulation; feedback; dynamic systems; theory integration