Pre-registration note: falsification conditions for Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) ahead of the Euclid DR1 cosmological results

This note fixes publicly, before the release of any cosmological product of Euclid Data Release 1, the conditions under which the framework Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) (anchor α = 2/27, Paper I, doi:10.5281/zenodo.19084839) and its running-vacuum extension (Paper II, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21595464) will be declared falsified, disfavoured, compatible or suspended. The arbiter is the first official Euclid DR1 cosmological-parameter analysis (LE3 products, expected mid-2027); the primary combination is Euclid + Planck CMB in flat ΛCDM, with a declared fallback ladder. Rules: R1 (static test, |Ω_Λ − 0.685529| ≥ 3σ → falsified) when the internal Euclid–CMB tension is below 2.5σ; R2 (dynamical test on w₀wₐ, with a single bounded suspension R2b passing the verdict to Euclid DR2 or DESI DR3) when it is above; R3 (running test: ν ∈ [0.02, 0.04] with the frozen Paper II pipeline). The note states that the Paper I v5 criterion has already formally triggered on DESI DR2+CMB (3.3σ), that the value is a retrodiction, and that the author waives any further discretionary suspension, change of combination, or reinterpretation of thresholds. A falsified outcome will be published as such on this channel.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23884092
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Pre-registration note: falsification conditions for Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) ahead of the Euclid DR1 cosmological results

Dario Notarbartolo
4 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
article

Pre-registration note: falsification conditions for Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) ahead of the Euclid DR1 cosmological results

Dario Notarbartolo
article en

Abstract

This note fixes publicly, before the release of any cosmological product of Euclid Data Release 1, the conditions under which the framework Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) (anchor α = 2/27, Paper I, doi:10.5281/zenodo.19084839) and its running-vacuum extension (Paper II, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21595464) will be declared falsified, disfavoured, compatible or suspended. The arbiter is the first official Euclid DR1 cosmological-parameter analysis (LE3 products, expected mid-2027); the primary combination is Euclid + Planck CMB in flat ΛCDM, with a declared fallback ladder. Rules: R1 (static test, |Ω_Λ − 0.685529| ≥ 3σ → falsified) when the internal Euclid–CMB tension is below 2.5σ; R2 (dynamical test on w₀wₐ, with a single bounded suspension R2b passing the verdict to Euclid DR2 or DESI DR3) when it is above; R3 (running test: ν ∈ [0.02, 0.04] with the frozen Paper II pipeline). The note states that the Paper I v5 criterion has already formally triggered on DESI DR2+CMB (3.3σ), that the value is a retrodiction, and that the author waives any further discretionary suspension, change of combination, or reinterpretation of thresholds. A falsified outcome will be published as such on this channel.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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Pre-registration note: falsification conditions for Ω_Λ = tanh²(2√π/3) ahead of the Euclid DR1 cosmological results — Dario Notarbartolo · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS