The gender pay gap during conflict: evidence from farm workers in Myanmar

Abstract Rising global conflict increasingly destabilizes food systems and labor markets that underpin livelihoods and food security. Conflict-driven shocks—such as male outmigration or shifts toward manual, gendered tasks—can fundamentally reshape the structural inequalities that determine how men and women are compensated. However, quantitative research on gendered agricultural labor markets remains rare, particularly in conflict settings. This paper addresses that gap by providing quantitative analysis of gender wage disparities among hired farm workers amidst conflict. We focus on Myanmar as a highly relevant case study: the country is facing devastating conflict following the military coup in early 2021. We use a unique nationwide primary dataset of 1,504 farm workers matched with georeferenced data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Employing decomposition analysis, we find a 19% gender pay gap driven by structural inequalities rather than individual traits. While wages are lower in highly conflict-affected areas, the gender gap remains stagnant, likely due to offsetting market shocks. This persistent disparity represents a "hidden tax" on female labor that, despite not widening, remains a structural barrier that undermines the efficiency and recovery of agri-food systems in crisis.