Human Development, Consumption Regimes and Climate Performance: Do Capabilities Decouple Diets From Agricultural Emissions?

ABSTRACT Development expands capabilities that could make consumption cleaner but also shifts diets towards animal products. We ask whether capabilities weaken the link between diet composition and greenhouse gas emissions, and whether it shows in aggregate climate performance. Drawing on the scale‐composition‐technique decomposition of the environmental Kuznets curve and on socio‐metabolic and capability perspectives, we test moderation hypotheses for 61 countries over 2010–2023. The outcomes are agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions and the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), with estimators chosen from panel diagnostics. Within countries, a one‐point increase in the animal share of protein supply is associated with about 0.7% higher agricultural emissions. The effect holds in differences, across the emissions distribution and in a placebo test. None of five capability measures weakens it, and the CCPI does not reflect it. Capability expansion alone has not curbed diet‐related emissions, so mitigation needs instruments aimed at diets and livestock production.