Vulnerabilities and agency of small technologically advanced states: Finland navigating Sino-US strategic technology competition

This article explores how a small technologically advanced state, exemplified by Finland, seeks to maintain agency and manage security risks in Sino-US strategic technology competition, and what future options experts envision for it. The US and China are presently the only ‘geoeconomic great powers’ with competences across four dimensions: investment leverage, supply chains, critical technologies, and technology standards. Given its close security ties to the United States, Finland is expected to align with it when faced with a choice between technological ecosystems. However, Finland has also been a strong proponent of open markets, and maintained cooperative ties with China, even encompassing 5G/6G research collaboration. Small technologically advanced states have distinct vulnerabilities due to their intensive participation in high-tech value chains and extensive reliance on IT services and critical minerals, provided by enterprises from geoeconomic great powers. Yet, their capabilities in critical/niche technologies also provide agency, as they possess critical technological knowledge, assets and/or production that one or both of these powers depend on. They may thus ‘punch above their weight’ in strategic technology competition. Drawing insights from Delphi exercises and empirical cases, we propose five strategies that smaller states can utilize in building agency and resilience, highlighting a technology-oriented shelter-seeking strategy.