Taxonomy-Shaped Mixture-of-Experts Routing Atypicality for Zero-Shot Out-of-Taxonomy Transient Discovery in Rubin/LSST and ZTF

Real-time alert streams from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) will deliver millions of multiband photometric light curves per night. While sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) foundation models such as Astro-MoE achieve strong closed-set classification across known transient families, standard out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors—including Maximum Softmax Probability (MSP), Output Predictive Entropy, and penultimate-layer Mahalanobis distance—fail catastrophically when unseen physical transients (e.g., Kilonovae, Intermediate Luminosity Optical Transients, Pair-Instability Supernovae, and Fast Blue Optical Transients) project into the convex hull of known classes after sequence pooling. We introduce Taxonomy-Shaped MoE Routing Control and a zero-extra-training anomaly statistic, MoE Routing Atypicality (A_route). By supervising internal router trajectories with stabilized Light-Curve-Level Taxonomy Mutual Information (J_tax) and smooth-flux-gradient Temporal Consistency (L_temp), we increase the Within-vs.-Cross Taxonomy Cosine Similarity Gap from 0.000 to 0.528. Across held-out rare transient classes on the LSST 6-band (u,g,r,i,z,Y) ELAsTiCC/PLAsTiCC and FLARE benchmarks, A_route achieves 98.0% Recall at 1% False Alarm Rate (FAR) (AUROC = 0.9993), outperforming Output Predictive Entropy (1.8% Recall @ 1% FAR, +96.2 pp) and Penultimate-Layer Mahalanobis Distance (9.9% Recall @ 1% FAR, +88.0 pp).

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23892236
Primary Topic
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Taxonomy-Shaped Mixture-of-Experts Routing Atypicality for Zero-Shot Out-of-Taxonomy Transient Discovery in Rubin/LSST and ZTF

Anurag Sinha
1 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
preprint

Taxonomy-Shaped Mixture-of-Experts Routing Atypicality for Zero-Shot Out-of-Taxonomy Transient Discovery in Rubin/LSST and ZTF

Anurag Sinha
preprint en

Abstract

Real-time alert streams from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) will deliver millions of multiband photometric light curves per night. While sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) foundation models such as Astro-MoE achieve strong closed-set classification across known transient families, standard out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors—including Maximum Softmax Probability (MSP), Output Predictive Entropy, and penultimate-layer Mahalanobis distance—fail catastrophically when unseen physical transients (e.g., Kilonovae, Intermediate Luminosity Optical Transients, Pair-Instability Supernovae, and Fast Blue Optical Transients) project into the convex hull of known classes after sequence pooling. We introduce Taxonomy-Shaped MoE Routing Control and a zero-extra-training anomaly statistic, MoE Routing Atypicality (A_route). By supervising internal router trajectories with stabilized Light-Curve-Level Taxonomy Mutual Information (J_tax) and smooth-flux-gradient Temporal Consistency (L_temp), we increase the Within-vs.-Cross Taxonomy Cosine Similarity Gap from 0.000 to 0.528. Across held-out rare transient classes on the LSST 6-band (u,g,r,i,z,Y) ELAsTiCC/PLAsTiCC and FLARE benchmarks, A_route achieves 98.0% Recall at 1% False Alarm Rate (FAR) (AUROC = 0.9993), outperforming Output Predictive Entropy (1.8% Recall @ 1% FAR, +96.2 pp) and Penultimate-Layer Mahalanobis Distance (9.9% Recall @ 1% FAR, +88.0 pp).

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Laika access coming soon