CASCADE: THE THIRD CONFIRMATION. On the Korean Correction, the Two That Came Before It, and What Three Independent Market Events Say About the Absence of a Second Use

Three market events in the last three months share a mechanism. Each was a correction inwhich the capacity in question had a single use, and each was undamped because nosecond use existed. The first is Anthropic's S-1. It discloses approximately USD 265.6 billion in non-cancelable commitments against approximately USD 10.8 billion in customer commitments — about 25 to 1. The capacity is priced for a single use. The market has begun to price that. The second is the China correction. An AI index fell roughly 40 percent in four months.Hundreds of billions in market value wiped out. The capacity had one use. The marketrepriced the revenue. The correction was undamped. The third is the Korean correction. Two companies — Samsung and SK hynix — account for more than half of the KOSPI's market capitalisation. At the height of the crash, the KOSPI–Nasdaq 100 correlation was 0.95. The small node wagged the large index. This paper states the three events, the shared mechanism, and the limit. The limit is statedin the abstract rather than the residuals: a cascade would not have prevented any of thecorrections. It would have given the capacity a second use, and a second use would havemade the corrections gentler for whoever had one. None did. Three times. The paper cites the two earlier cascade papers, states what the third event adds, and names what a fourth would have to look like to falsify the thesis.