Beyond affordability: demographic change and the decline of homeownership aspirations in Japan

This article examined the decline in homeownership aspirations in Japan, where housing price inflation has remained relatively modest compared to Western economies. Drawing on repeated cross-sectional datasets from the Survey of Household Finance (1992–2020), the study investigates how demographic, economic and institutional changes have reshaped tenure aspirations among non-homeowners, particularly those in their 30s and 40s. The findings show that declining aspirations are closely linked to shifts in household formation, with single-person households exhibiting significantly lower and faster declines than multi-person households. The growing prevalence of single-person households has therefore contributed to the overall decline. Contrary to conventional explanations, the prevalence of children is not clearly associated with homeownership aspirations. It also identified a weakening role of inheritance as a pathway to homeownership, reflecting declining co-residence and changing intergenerational relationships. While economic factors remain important, affordability constraints are driven less by rising house prices than by declining incomes, particularly among single-person households. The findings challenge housing affordability-centred explanations and highlight the importance of demographic change and the transformation of family-based housing systems. The article contributes to debates on homeownership ideology and aspirations by demonstrating how shifting family dynamics reshape both the meaning and feasibility of homeownership in post-growth societies.