Governance, Decentralization, and Fertility Policy: Lessons from Sweden for South Korea

Abstract South Korea faces a severe demographic crisis with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.72 in 2023. Despite massive financial investments, low fertility persists. While existing literature focuses on socioeconomic factors like housing and education costs, this paper examines the political dimension. Drawing on Sweden’s trajectory of low birth rates and welfare state evolution, this study explores how governance structures shape population policy outcomes. Through comparative institutional analysis, we argue that South Korea’s hyper-centralized political system intensifies spatial and socioeconomic concentration in the capital region, exacerbating regional inequality and demographic decline. Institutional decentralization, as illustrated by Sweden, provides a framework for regionally tailored and socially sustainable family policies. Keywords: Fertility decline; Political centralization; Decentralization; Regional inequality; South Korea; Sweden