Carbon at the Border: What the EU's CBAM Means for Saudi Exporters: Exposure, data readiness, and the downstream risk for smaller manufacturers

• The paper analyzes the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Saudi exporters, focusing primarily on aluminum exports which make up the bulk of covered trade.• Aggregate exposure is currently moderate (about 0.05% of GDP), but charges per tonne are projected to increase significantly between 2026 and 2034.• It highlights the critical need for verified plant-level emissions data to avoid default penalty surcharges, alongside risks and compliance challenges facing smaller manufacturers (SMEs) downstream.