Who Intends to Purchase Alternative Meat? Product-Specific Consumer Decision Structures in the United States and Japan

Amid growing concerns about the societal and ethical issues associated with excessive meat consumption, alternative meats have attracted attention as possible substitutes. However, their market share remains limited, and little is known about which combinations of consumer attitudes must hold at the same time before consumers intend to buy. This study explores consumer segments and decision structures underlying purchase intentions for three alternative meats in the United States and Japan (n = 504 and 543). Using data from parallel online surveys, we applied random forest models to identify key predictors of purchase intention, followed by decision tree analyses to uncover interpretable decision structures. Sensory expectation emerged as the primary predictor for plant-based meat; however, even with lower sensory expectations, purchase intention was elevated among respondents concerned about future animal welfare or who perceived the product as familiar and healthy. For cultured meat, the perceptions that the product is healthy and animal-friendly were important factors in both countries. Insect-based meat exhibited consistently low purchase intention in both countries, with favorable attitudes emerging only under specific conditions of perceptions and values. The number of conditions defining each segment increased across the three products, from none or one to three or five, while the group identified shrank from the whole sample to 5%. Alternative routes for consumers not satisfying the first condition fell from two for plant-based meat to none for insect-based meat. Acceptance thus corresponded to the number of conditions holding at once rather than the level of any single condition.