Process-level uncertainties challenge system-level direct air capture assessments
Abstract System-level assessments of direct air capture (DAC) commonly rely on individual process models, overlooking the influence of model choice on system-level conclusions. Here, we quantify this impact by integrating weather-dependent performance data from seven solid-sorbent DAC models into an otherwise consistent energy system framework. DAC representation is the largest source of variation in levelized CO2 capture cost, accounting for 43% of the observed variation across the climate-renewable archetypes considered compared with 16% for climate and 6% for renewable-resource configuration. Model-dependent cost differences exceed 1000 € tCO2-1 at individual locations. Different model representations can also reverse siting preferences, substantially alter cost-optimal system design, and determine whether future CO2 capture-cost targets are achieved. Our results further demonstrate how individual process-level assumptions can propagate through the assessment, resulting in a major source of system-level uncertainty. The harmonized DAC performance data developed here enable systematic comparison of alternative DAC representation in future system assessments.
Authors
- Sean McCoy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0401-893X)
- Marwan Sendi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9850-2724)
- Carsten Wedler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8275-912X)
- Tom Terlouw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3744-9728)
- Russell McKenna (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6758-482X)
- Ralf Peters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7995-7563)
- Niklas V. von der Assen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8855-9420)
- Jochen Linßen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2805-2307)
- Thomas Schöb (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7763-7497)
- Jann Michael Weinand (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2948-876X)
- Vittoria Bolongaro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4633-7713)
- Daniel Rezo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8581-404X)
- Niall Mac Dowell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7179-2701)
- Henrik Wenzel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8203-4930)
- Mattia Galanti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7544-0591)
- Malte Glaser
- Christoph Winkler
- Martin van Sint Annaland
- Aaron Jajjawi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0782-3083)
- Mak Dukan
Institutions
- University of Calgary (CA)
- Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE)
- Paul Scherrer Institute (CH)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia) (SA)
- Institute of Energy and Process Engineering (CH)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Saudi Aramco (United States) (US)
- Eindhoven University of Technology (NL)
- RWTH Aachen University (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Research Square
- Published
- 2026-11-02
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-11387567/v1
- Primary Topic
- Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Type
- preprint
Funders
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
- Staatssekretariat für Bildung, Forschung und Innovation