THE COMPLEXITY-EVASIVE SIMPLIFICATION-PROJECTION BIAS (CESPB)

AbstractThis manuscript proposes the Complexity-Evasive Simplification-Projection Bias (CESPB), a process-level theoretical framework for examining a particular form of reasoning in which an individual encounters a complex system, constructs a simplified representation, insufficiently evaluates decision-relevant information omitted during simplification, and projects the resulting explanation beyond its warranted domain of application.The proposed construct is not defined by simplification alone. Simplification can be adaptive, computationally efficient, and accurate when the retained information is sufficient for the relevant task. The distinctive problem addressed by CESPB is the conjunction of material structural omission and unsupported expansion of a simplified model's claimed scope.The framework distinguishes the primary First-Principle Compression-Projection Episode (FPCPE) from the proposed default mechanism, the Complexity-Evasive Compression-Projection Mechanism (CECPM). It specifies a ten-layer process architecture, eight analytical branches, eight complementary research domains, a formal mathematical representation, five candidate measurement dimensions, and eight falsifiable research hypotheses.The mathematical formulation separates properties of the target system, the decision-maker's simplified representation, the evaluation criterion, and the scope of the resulting claim. It also distinguishes errors in model performance from errors in the process by which a model is selected and generalized. A hypothetical case and an illustrative structural model clarify the framework without being presented as empirical evidence.Finally, the manuscript sets out boundary conditions, competing explanations, measurement requirements, a controlled research program, robustness analyses, and a replication strategy. The construct's conceptual organization is specified in this version, but its empirical distinctiveness, psychometric properties, causal mechanisms, and cross-domain generality remain unestablished. CESPB is therefore presented as a research proposal rather than a validated cognitive law.Keywords: cognitive bias; complexity omission; simplification; model projection; premature closure; model misspecification; bounded rationality; judgment and decision-making; cognitive modeling; boundary conditions.