Ships Passing By: Red Sea Shipping Disruptions and Value Retention in West African Ports

In late 2023, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea diverted most traffic between Asia and Europe around Africa, adding about 1,140 ships a month to the route past West Africa’s coast. This paper asks what it would take for West African economies to retain more value from maritime activity, and whether local repair and supply industries could make them more resilient to Middle Eastern shipping disruptions. A Poisson difference-in-differences model on IMF PortWatch data for 1,556 ports shows that port calls in West and Central Africa barely changed in the first six months of the diversion (+0.6%, 95% CI −6% to +8%), while tanker calls at the Canary Islands and Madeira, which already had large refuelling industries, rose by about 40%. Ports built mainly to export raw materials did no better and no worse than the rest of the region, and about 85% of the region’s container-ship calls were at ports whose main container terminal is run by a foreign operator. A break-even calculation suggests that holding critical spare parts locally can pay for itself at West African vessel day rates, but only when parts fit many vessels and finance is affordable. Together, the findings suggest that existing capacity, certification and finance, rather than location, decide where maritime spending goes.