Conditional reemigration after return: health, care and residential futures among older Portuguese migrants

Return does not necessarily close a migration trajectory. This exploratory study examines conditional residential futures among 613 older Portuguese migrants with return experience from France, distinguishing general expectations, willingness to return to France for health reasons, and preferred residence under daily assistance needs. Among the 205 currently residing mainly or almost exclusively in Portugal, 83.9% expressed positive health-related willingness and 59.5% preferred France for assistance, compared with 27.3% expecting to spend most remaining life there. The paired increase in France responses was 32.2 percentage points (bootstrap 95% CI 22.4–41.0). In a bias-reduced logistic model, children in France were associated with positive health-related willingness (OR 2.84, 95% CI 1.33–6.05; within-model Holm-adjusted p = 0.041), but not with certainty of return. Joint descendant-geography associations with care residence were inconclusive. Associations of distance, housing legacy and home meanings in the original specifications were not clearly supported in expanded specifications accounting for current residence and migration history. These cross-sectional, hypothetical responses identify conditional openness to renewed migration, not observed reemigration or feasible care arrangements. They show why return, continuing mobility and care-related residential preferences require separate measurement.