Trade Barriers Within a Customs Union: Export Vulnerability and Market Adjustment in Armenia

This paper examines Armenia's reliance on the EAEU market and the impact of Russia's 2026 trade restrictions on Armenian export patterns.It covers the full range of Armenian merchandise exports from 2015 to 2025 and looks at a number of specific developments in agricultural trade in 2026.The analysis is based on a range of statistical and comparative techniques to assess the geographical structure of exports, levels of market concentration and shifts in the pattern of destinations.The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is used as a measure of the level of concentration of exports within the EAEU.The results show that Russia continues to be Armenia's dominant trading partner in the EAEU, taking up around 92% of Armenia's total exports to EAEU countries in 2025.The degree of dependence is particularly pronounced in the case of vegetables, fish and fruit with Russian market shares of 98%, 97% and 93% respectively.The trade restrictions introduced in 2026 were accompanied by a fall in agricultural exports and a change in the geographical pattern of those exports.Some exporters have shifted their products to Georgia, Uzbekistan and other countries.The data available do not allow us to determine whether these other markets have made up for the loss of exports to Russia.The findings confirm that export concentration remains a significant source of vulnerability for Armenian producers and that a greater degree of market diversification would be beneficial to the stability of Armenian foreign trade.