ReadoutBench: a prospective benchmark for forecasting clinical trial readouts. Design and Round 1 protocol

Design and Round 1 protocol of ReadoutBench, a prospective benchmark that asks AI systems (and people) to forecast 653 company-run randomized phase 2 and 3 clinical trials before their results are public. This version fixes the design before any result of the round is known; Table 4 gives the SHA-256 fingerprints of the round's files and of the five reference entries. Submissions close on 15 November 2026. Site, rules, code and every pre-launch check: https://readoutbench.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23869381
Primary Topic
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
Type
preprint
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preprint

ReadoutBench: a prospective benchmark for forecasting clinical trial readouts. Design and Round 1 protocol

Lucas Heinrich
2 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
preprint

ReadoutBench: a prospective benchmark for forecasting clinical trial readouts. Design and Round 1 protocol

Lucas Heinrich
preprint en

Abstract

Design and Round 1 protocol of ReadoutBench, a prospective benchmark that asks AI systems (and people) to forecast 653 company-run randomized phase 2 and 3 clinical trials before their results are public. This version fixes the design before any result of the round is known; Table 4 gives the SHA-256 fingerprints of the round's files and of the five reference entries. Submissions close on 15 November 2026. Site, rules, code and every pre-launch check: https://readoutbench.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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ReadoutBench: a prospective benchmark for forecasting clinical trial readouts. Design and Round 1 protocol — Lucas Heinrich · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS