Sustainability-Oriented Legal Compliance Risk Screening for Belt and Road Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics: An Audita ble Decision-Support Framework

Cross-border e-commerce expands market access across Belt and Road economies, but platform-mediated logistics exposes firms to heterogeneous customs, data, consumerprotection, taxation, cybersecurity, and environmental requirements.This study develops a transparent country-level screening and decision-support framework that integrates governance quality, logistics performance, economic exposure, and digital readiness.After correcting country-name matching with ISO3 identifiers, the analysis covers 66 economies using 2023 Worldwide Governance Indicators, Logistics Performance Index, and World Development Indicators data.A weighted proxy (governance 0.50, logistics 0.30, digital readiness 0.20) is evaluated with logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting under a stratified 49/17 holdout and random seed 42.Logistic regression and random forest each obtain 0.82 accuracy, 0.73 precision, 1.00 recall, 0.84 F1-score, and 1.00 AUC; gradient boosting obtains 0.59 accuracy, 0.70 F1-score, and 0.94 AUC.These metrics measure recovery of an internally constructed median-split proxy, not prediction of independently adjudicated violations.Regulatory quality, rule of law, government effectiveness, logistics competence, and tracking capability provide the strongest screening signals.The framework converts relative risk evidence into proportionate due-diligence, documentation, routing, monitoring, and escalation controls while remaining subordinate to transaction-and jurisdiction-specific legal review.