LIGHTNING IN NEPAL: UNDERSTANDING THE RISK, HEALTH IMPACT, AND SCOPE FOR EARLY WARNING

Background: Lightning is a recurring hazard in Nepal, particularly in the periods before and during the monsoon. This paper examines how existing records of lightning events, deaths, injuries and human exposure might inform prevention efforts at local level. Objective: This paper reviews published evidence on lightning occurrence and health effects in Nepal and sets out a practical framework for assessing risk, conducting a community survey and planning early-warning actions. Methods: The proposed retrospective analysis would use national disaster records, meteorological information and published studies. Variables for review include the date and location of incidents, deaths and injuries, circumstances of exposure, occupation, weather conditions and access to safe shelter. A proposed Lightning Risk Score brings together information on the hazard, exposure and shelter access. Results: Existing studies document a substantial lightning burden in Nepal, with differences across locations and study periods. One analysis covering 1971–2019 recorded 2,501 fatality events, 1,927 deaths and 20,569 affected people, and estimated a national fatality rate of 1.77 per million people per year. A separate analysis reported 1,050 deaths in its Himalayan-region dataset for 2011–2021. The figures come from different datasets and definitions, so they should not be treated as directly comparable. Conclusion: The evidence points to a need for Nepal to complement post-event response with prevention based on local risk. Priorities include improving records, making safety information more accessible, identifying safe shelters, issuing targeted warnings and testing the proposed Lightning Risk Score before any practical use.