Cropland Change and Prime Farmland in Calloway County, Kentucky, 2015–2025: A GIS Analysis of Corn and Soybean Fields

Understanding where cropland change occurs relative to soil quality helps indicate whether farmland is being used on the most productive land. This study used GIS-based change detection analysis to evaluate changes in corn and soybean fields in Calloway County, Kentucky, between 2015 and 2025 and to test whether new corn and soybean fields were located on prime farmland. USDA Cropland Data Layer maps for 2015 and 2025 (30 m resolution) were reclassified into seven classes and compared in ArcGIS Pro, and the results were overlaid on USDA NRCS gSSURGO farmland classification. Combined corn and soybean area declined about 19% from roughly 82,000 to 66,000 acres, driven by a 44% decrease in soybean acreage while corn acreage increased by 22%. Hay/pasture and developed land increased by about 49% and 53%, respectively, and forest land decreased by about 26%. Despite the net loss, about 10,970 acres that were not corn or soybean in 2015 were in these crops in 2025. Prime farmland, which covers 40% of the county, received 61% of this new cropland (6.4% of prime land converted, compared with 1.9% of non-prime land). The conversion rate was slightly lower within a 1 km buffer of Murray’s city limits (3.5%) than elsewhere (4.2%). Although corn and soybean area contracted overall, new fields were disproportionately located on prime soils and were not concentrated near the city. Cropland Data Layer classification error, particularly among pasture, grassland, and developed classes, may contribute to the apparent change; results should therefore be treated as approximate.