Evaluating the Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Khabur River Discharge and Hydrological Systems Using Arc-SWAT

Changes in basin hydrological processes are largely caused by human activity associated with LULC. This study investigates how variations in LULC impact the Khabur River basin’s hydrologic processes. LULC classification was performed using supervised methods with Landsat data spanning from 2005 to 2025. The confusion matrix for the 2025 map showed over 90% accuracy and a kappa coefficient of approximately 88%, confirming its reliability for modeling. Hydrological responses to LULC changes were analyzed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SUFI-2 in SWAT_CUP was utilized for calibration and validation at the Chemsermo station (2004-2025). Performance indicators (R²: 0.73-0.798, NSE: 0.68-0.82, and PBIAS: 22.2-21.3) demonstrated good model performance. Results from 2005-2025 show an increase in grassland by 3.92 %, bare land by 0.06%, and settlements by 0.92%. Conversely, Tree cover decreased by 3.53%, Shrubland by 0.45 %, cropland by 0.58 %, and water bodies by 0.34%. The basin hydrology underwent substantial alteration, with surface runoff increasing by 108.48 mm, actual evapotranspiration rising to 257.42 mm, and potential evapotranspiration increasing to 184.67 mm. Meanwhile, annual river discharge declined by 311.60 m³/sec, groundwater flow decreased by 226.27 mm, water yield decreased by 90.04 mm, and lateral flow decreased by 5.28 mm. Overall, LULC changes significantly affect streamflow, and improved land-use planning and water management are resilient against climate change.