The Ergodic Trap: Why Positive Expected Value Can Still Destroy You

A positive expected value can coexist with near-certain ruin in any multiplicative process. The gap is the default, not the exception - and it is the reason time averages and ensemble averages diverge in almost every problem a quant is paid to solve.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Wilmott
Published
2026-10-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.54946/wilm.12280
Primary Topic
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

The Ergodic Trap: Why Positive Expected Value Can Still Destroy You

Fuaad Qureshi
Wilmott
Stochastic processes and financial applications
article

The Ergodic Trap: Why Positive Expected Value Can Still Destroy You

Fuaad Qureshi
article en

Abstract

A positive expected value can coexist with near-certain ruin in any multiplicative process. The gap is the default, not the exception - and it is the reason time averages and ensemble averages diverge in almost every problem a quant is paid to solve.

WilmottVol. 2026(146)
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Stochastic processes and financial applications
DOISourceOpenAlex
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The Ergodic Trap: Why Positive Expected Value Can Still Destroy You — Fuaad Qureshi · Wilmott (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS