LAB #4974 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% (+4.6pp, n=113) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only act on trades whose entry timestamp falls in a DISTRIBUTION quarterly phase, and nothing in the supplied window is labeled with phase, so the honest read is that zero of the 10 listed trades can be confirmed as filtered out or kept — the +4.6pp is unverifiable against this window. If DISTRIBUTION happens to cover early-to-mid September, the four SHORTs that lost (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) plus the two USDCHF longs would be the candidates for removal, but that is a guess, not a measurement. Net effect on the live window is therefore indeterminate: no defensible win-rate or PnL delta can be claimed from n=10 with an unlabeled phase variable. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A +4.6pp win-rate lift on n=113 is roughly 5 extra wins, which is inside the noise band for a binomial proportion ( Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23831060
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
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LAB #4974 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

LAB #4974 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.7% to 36.3% (+4.6pp, n=113) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would only act on trades whose entry timestamp falls in a DISTRIBUTION quarterly phase, and nothing in the supplied window is labeled with phase, so the honest read is that zero of the 10 listed trades can be confirmed as filtered out or kept — the +4.6pp is unverifiable against this window. If DISTRIBUTION happens to cover early-to-mid September, the four SHORTs that lost (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD) plus the two USDCHF longs would be the candidates for removal, but that is a guess, not a measurement. Net effect on the live window is therefore indeterminate: no defensible win-rate or PnL delta can be claimed from n=10 with an unlabeled phase variable. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: A +4.6pp win-rate lift on n=113 is roughly 5 extra wins, which is inside the noise band for a binomial proportion ( Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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