Running in Context: Marginalization, Political Ambition, and Candidate Emergence

Does the electoral context shape interest in running for office among marginalized groups? Women, racialized groups, and youth have historically exhibited lower political ambition and candidacy rates, yet periods when identity-based marginalization becomes electorally salient have coincided with surges in candidates from these groups. I argue that contexts marked by the salience of marginalization can catalyze political ambition. Survey experiments across multiple U.S. samples show that making marginalization salient, especially when coupled with demands for inclusion, boosts marginalized individuals' interest in running and nascent ambition. The findings support a contextual activation theory of political ambition, whereby marginalization salience activates ambition primarily among those already better positioned to consider running, such as individuals with higher political efficacy, qualifications, or baseline ambition. Observational evidence from state legislative elections suggests this psychological activation corresponds with patterns of real-world candidate emergence.