A Bounded Bay: Mission Beach Flood Dynamics in an Elevated-Water Year (revision r7)

A demonstration from public data of how the elevated coastal water of October 2026 meets the other inputs to Mission Bay (tide, swell, rain over the 64 sq mi watershed, Rose and Tecolote Creeks, and the San Diego River at the shared exit) and narrows the margin at the barriers between the bay and Mission Beach’s streets. Every figure is marked as measured, derived or judged. The paper includes a claims-and-evidence table with what would disprove each claim, the self-found and reviewer-found errors it corrected, and the pre-registered test of 31 October – 2 November 2026, whose claims were fingerprinted before the window opened (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23827570, doi:10.5281/zenodo.23828517). Results follow in a dated addendum. Revision r7 differs from the draft fingerprinted on 31 October 2026 (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23840275) only as stated in its revision note. The theory and results are shared; the methodology and code are withheld. Not reviewed by a licensed engineer. TDD reports on public information; it does not issue forecasts or warnings. For guidance where you are, contact your local officials.