Economic growth targets, energy consumption constraints, and transboundary PM2.5 pollution: empirical evidence from China

Government target management, a core institutional tool for optimizing resource allocation and improving governance efficiency, plays a pivotal role in air pollution mitigation. Using panel data from 225 Chinese cities spanning 2006 to 2022, this paper employs a spatial Durbin model to investigate how economic growth targets and energy consumption constraints shape transboundary PM 2.5 pollution. The results show that economic growth targets significantly elevate local and neighboring pollution levels, whereas energy consumption constraints reduce pollution in both areas; their antagonistic interaction amplifies PM 2.5 spillovers. The joint effect of dual-target management exhibits spatial attenuation at approximately 500 km and a temporal breakpoint around 2013, marking a governance pattern transition from zero-sum games to win–win outcomes. Mechanism analysis identifies economic linkages and strategic interactions as core transmission channels, while heterogeneity tests reveal a west-to-east declining gradient in spillover effects. These findings provide actionable empirical support for local governments to set compatible economic and environmental targets and resolve the cross-regional pollution governance dilemma.