Wealth and Childbearing: how economic resources shape reproductive transitions in Italy

Research on the economic determinants of fertility has mainly focused on current household’s and individual’s resources such as income and employment, while household wealth has received comparatively less attention. Unlike income, wealth reflects a stock of resources accumulated over time and may therefore capture a more durable dimension of economic security, providing a buffer against income losses, unexpected expenses, and future economic shocks. This paper examines whether household wealth is associated with subsequent childbearing in Italy, distinguishing between different wealth measures. Using longitudinal SHIW data for 1995-2022, collected by the Bank of Italy, we estimate random-effects logit models examining the associations of gross wealth, net worth, and debt with childbearing transitions among heterosexual couples. Despite the theoretical expectation of a positive association, we find little evidence that greater accumulated wealth increases the probability of childbearing. Interaction analyses further suggest that accumulated wealth may acquire greater relevance within specific socioeconomic and partnership contexts. Overall, our findings do not support a general positive wealth-childbearing relationship, while pointing to possible heterogeneity across partnership and socioeconomic groups.